componentwise.csv

"ID","Camp","median(PU)","median(PUc)","median(Pc)","median(punotc)","median(VoI_log, na.rm = TRUE)","componentWiseVoI","PUc_x_Pc_less_than_PU","punotc_check"
"6 month pause","Concerned",0.2225,0.095,0.125,0.23375,0.000475528024101081,0.0032086924425932,TRUE,0.240714285714286
"6 month pause","Skeptical",0.001,9e-04,0.03,0.00100526315789474,0,7.33267431072799e-08,TRUE,0.00100309278350515
"AI Forecasting skill","Concerned",0.275,0.29,0.34,0.23,0.00134140767272575,0.0015928037530331,TRUE,0.267272727272727
"AI Forecasting skill","Skeptical",0.001,0.002,0.19,0.001,0,3.19167598528591e-05,TRUE,0.000765432098765432
"AI Robotics","Concerned",0.21,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.000886743466914556,0.000507126909866004,TRUE,0.2
"AI Robotics","Skeptical",0.0012,0.002,0.05,0.00115789473684211,0,5.1288172397945e-06,TRUE,0.00115789473684211
"AI articles and apps","Concerned",0.2225,0.23,0.25,0.220625,6.95391463661013e-07,2.08290896360488e-05,TRUE,0.22
"AI articles and apps","Skeptical",0.001,0.002,0.05,0.001,0,8.39914732969976e-06,TRUE,0.000947368421052632
"AI coding","Concerned",0.21,0.25,0.65,0.16,0.000975877033771764,0.00252595870074352,TRUE,0.135714285714286
"AI coding","Skeptical",0.0012,0.0012,0.7,0.0012,0,0,TRUE,0.0012
"AI solving novel math problems","Concerned",0.275,0.25,0.15,0.2625,0.000711324459425575,0.000250191511349838,TRUE,0.279411764705882
"AI solving novel math problems","Skeptical",0.001,0.0012,0.2,0.001,0,1.63345880820211e-06,TRUE,0.00095
"Alignment researchers changing minds","Concerned",0.275,0.06,0.2,0.330690298507463,0.00744608744270011,0.0158721082919691,TRUE,0.32875
"Alignment researchers changing minds","Skeptical",0.001,0.001,0.03,0.00102319587628866,0,0,TRUE,0.001
"Cyberattacks","Concerned",0.2225,0.22,0.225,0.221666666666667,1.19899109559578e-05,2.44608056715021e-06,TRUE,0.223225806451613
"Cyberattacks","Skeptical",0.0015,0.0016,0.12,0.0014998998998999,0,1.70243403722567e-07,TRUE,0.00148636363636364
"IC demonstration","Concerned",0.2225,0.22,0.725,0.227142857142857,0,1.31074808601894e-05,TRUE,0.229090909090909
"IC demonstration","Skeptical",0.0015,0.00175,0.17,0.00149747474747475,0,1.46223307908712e-06,TRUE,0.00144879518072289
"IT progress","Concerned",0.2225,0.27,0.225,0.202380952380952,0.000200295088395905,0.00101098070032413,TRUE,0.208709677419355
"IT progress","Skeptical",0.0015,0.0016,0.03,0.0015,0,4.25605313133474e-08,TRUE,0.00149690721649485
"No violence LLM","Concerned",0.2225,0.09,0.125,0.238125,0.00101560172437752,0.00361538807272938,TRUE,0.241428571428571
"No violence LLM","Skeptical",0.001,0.001,0.05,0.001,0,0,TRUE,0.001
"Non-democracy AI","Concerned",0.2225,0.269,0.11,0.214517676767677,0.000280493104677108,0.000357054544037683,TRUE,0.216752808988764
"Non-democracy AI","Skeptical",0.002,0.0018,0.2,0.00205,0,1.11661835574426e-06,TRUE,0.00205
"Other fields IC","Concerned",0.21,0.21,0.5,0.21,0,0,TRUE,0.21
"Other fields IC","Skeptical",0.0012,0.0013,0.3,0.0011,0,1.83398288467931e-06,TRUE,0.00115714285714286
"Politicization","Concerned",0.21,0.3,0.2,0.16875,0,0.00381789320309161,TRUE,0.1875
"Politicization","Skeptical",0.0012,0.0012,0.2,0.0012,0,0,TRUE,0.0012
"Req testing","Concerned",0.21,0.21,0.8,0.21,0,0,TRUE,0.21
"Req testing","Skeptical",0.0015,0.0014,0.1,0.00152777777777778,0,2.4837828738626e-07,TRUE,0.00151111111111111
"Short-term GDP change","Concerned",0.275,0.275,0.3,0.27390243902439,3.6454584493018e-07,0,TRUE,0.275
"Short-term GDP change","Skeptical",0.001,0.001,0.1,0.001,0,0,TRUE,0.001
"Taiwan-China","Concerned",0.2225,0.2225,0.3,0.169444444444444,0.000119811976776861,0.00263541273749478,TRUE,0.2225
"Taiwan-China","Skeptical",0.0015,0.002,0.255,0.0015,0,8.36007547477408e-06,TRUE,0.00132885906040268
"Fast AI efficiency gains","Concerned",0.275,0.34,0.165,0.256470588235294,0.000925241083585349,0.00104371287034418,TRUE,0.262155688622755
"Fast AI efficiency gains","Skeptical",0.001,0.003,0.02,0.001,7.00433691899519e-16,1.1272896791508e-05,TRUE,0.000959183673469388
"Muehlhauser policies","Concerned",0.21,0.2,0.65,0.228571428571429,0.000981358543183778,0.000240838418242058,TRUE,0.228571428571429
"Muehlhauser policies","Skeptical",0.0015,0.00145,0.175,0.00157142857142857,3.45385477832931e-07,6.64954415563184e-07,TRUE,0.00151060606060606
"Reduction in AI investment","Concerned",0.275,0.1,0.135,0.283359133126935,0.00131638250427425,0.0055438291005346,TRUE,0.302312138728324
"Reduction in AI investment","Skeptical",0.001,5e-04,0.05,0.00105555555555556,1.29491150613721e-10,3.96018956645027e-06,TRUE,0.00102631578947368
"Evidence of misalignment","Concerned",0.275,0.28,0.45,0.173333333333333,0.0037496797834264,0.00681513632149489,TRUE,0.270909090909091
"Evidence of misalignment","Skeptical",0.002,0.0025,0.01,0.00148936170212766,5.46086176466076e-09,3.10818269589068e-05,TRUE,0.0019949494949495
"Public concern","Concerned",0.21,0.25,0.05,0.205263157894737,0.000177882417976393,0.000128346651948881,TRUE,0.207894736842105
"Public concern","Skeptical",0.0012,0.0013,0.05,0.00118888888888889,1.10964133003847e-07,1.09487750773664e-07,TRUE,0.00119473684210526
"Escalating warning shots","Concerned",0.275,0.385,0.095,0.263205128205128,0.000917161213525488,0.00130778891547939,TRUE,0.263453038674033
"Escalating warning shots","Skeptical",0.0015,0.0041,0.0035,0.00147638493066535,4.10478563120657e-07,2.40060393016567e-06,TRUE,0.00149086803813347
"Warning shot","Concerned",0.275,0.36,0.185,0.254444444444444,0.00107036445403981,0.00175901618204631,TRUE,0.255705521472393
"Warning shot","Skeptical",0.0015,0.0025,0.03,0.00149124763307385,5.57781605922078e-07,3.62714215683471e-06,TRUE,0.00146907216494845
"Alignment solution","Concerned",0.2225,0.035,0.06,0.243580012650221,0.00282831146412316,0.00425881682201127,TRUE,0.234468085106383
"Alignment solution","Skeptical",0.0015,0.001,0.05,0.00152198142414861,9.7781130350297e-07,2.12174515771367e-06,TRUE,0.00152631578947368
"Major powers war","Concerned",0.21,0.4,0.115,0.188888888888889,0.00456376668941231,0.00515855014614775,TRUE,0.185310734463277
"Major powers war","Skeptical",0.0012,0.002,0.02,0.00120408163265306,4.14524873854402e-07,1.93097643134781e-06,TRUE,0.00118367346938775
"Platform: Transformative growth","Concerned",0.25,0.26,0.43,0.1975,0.0138553362608003,0.0019656108504398,TRUE,0.242456140350877
"Platform: Transformative growth","Skeptical",0.001,0.005,0.02,0.000995995995995996,4.52674190956397e-07,3.52265112429178e-05,TRUE,0.000918367346938775
"Power-seeking","Concerned",0.21,0.18,0.15,0.213333333333333,0.000135310833798082,0.000195722563196818,TRUE,0.215294117647059
"Power-seeking","Skeptical",0.0015,0.0076,0.075,0.00148888888888889,1.40539805589754e-05,0.000203626755794504,TRUE,0.00100540540540541
"Platform: Escalating warning shots","Concerned",0.229,0.17,0.05,0.233783783783784,0.000490453104208805,0.000255807148341388,TRUE,0.232105263157895
"Platform: Escalating warning shots","Skeptical",0.001,0.013,0.0025,0.000994987468671679,4.75938238552704e-07,2.32583478152576e-05,TRUE,0.000969924812030075
"Platform: ARC Evals","Concerned",0.25,0.25,0.25,0.227777777777778,0.00319664504075757,0,TRUE,0.25
"Platform: ARC Evals","Skeptical",0.001,0.01,0.01,0.000954773869346734,7.62555136783888e-07,6.15370282005782e-05,TRUE,0.000909090909090909
"AI writes AI","Concerned",0.2225,0.325,0.125,0.21020202020202,0.000881570400580297,0.00167300503387366,TRUE,0.207857142857143
"AI writes AI","Skeptical",0.0015,0.00305,0.02,0.00148625730994152,2.48540307267391e-06,5.37496561971073e-06,TRUE,0.00146836734693878
"Platform: AI regulation","Concerned",0.229,0.18,0.36,0.277659574468085,0.00065809672779828,0.00290453848923184,TRUE,0.2565625
"Platform: AI regulation","Skeptical",0.0012,0.001,0.5001,0.00141666666666667,1.13203802950594e-06,7.86089341277803e-06,TRUE,0.0014000800160032
"Intergovernmental AI safety","Concerned",0.21,0.17,0.25,0.222222222222222,0.00035131399714447,0.000695463355396094,TRUE,0.223333333333333
"Intergovernmental AI safety","Skeptical",0.0012,0.001,0.15,0.00123529411764706,1.34293132752999e-06,1.34293132752999e-06,TRUE,0.00123529411764706
"Power-seeking shutdown","Concerned",0.21,0.3,0.3,0.177777777777778,0.000768928392131838,0.00390040188925914,TRUE,0.171428571428571
"Power-seeking shutdown","Skeptical",0.0012,0.002,0.05,0.00116666666666667,1.69249698820037e-06,5.01308681913386e-06,TRUE,0.00115789473684211
"Democratic influence","Concerned",0.2225,0.2,0.02,0.216744835287549,0.000155592370083978,5.40319560464367e-05,TRUE,0.222959183673469
"Democratic influence","Skeptical",0.0015,0.015,0.004,0.0014897458683173,5.01549072317533e-06,3.67225736587413e-05,TRUE,0.00144578313253012
"Progress in lethal technologies","Concerned",0.275,0.3,0.45,0.25,0.000751651836005721,0.00068271548398228,TRUE,0.254545454545455
"Progress in lethal technologies","Skeptical",0.002,0.0075,0.2,0.0019247311827957,7.1743019367978e-06,0.000385141138021086,TRUE,0.000625
"Supers changing minds","Concerned",0.25,0.28,0.3,0.166666666666667,0.000314188679183205,0.00645278951140636,TRUE,0.237142857142857
"Supers changing minds","Skeptical",0.0025,0.0125,0.055,0.00173469387755102,0.000340593130483326,0.00029690688997307,TRUE,0.00191798941798942