The irreducible prediction-market core, from first principles. 224 lines of babashka, zero dependencies. A market is the ground state of a signed graph; frustration (Harary imbalance) = arbitrage = H¹ ≠ 0. Everything else — contact geometry, Fukaya, double categories — is intension, not dependency.
| file | trit | role |
|---|---|---|
oldies_kernel.clj |
0 / witness | signed graph + Jacobi harmonic pricing + Harary balance. Reproduces the CatColab motif finder (Dutch-book detection) exactly, and adds harmonic interior pricing in ~10 lines. |
oldies_vivarium.clj |
−1 / coplay | executable refuter: forward-run the composite, watch the residual. Frustration energy (duck floor 4.8278, balanced → 0.0000 exact) — Harary's yes/no bit upgraded to a spin-glass ground-state magnitude. Hidden-state-free by construction. |
oldies_divider.clj |
+1 / play | futarchy divider: mother → conditional daughters via splitmix64 SPI. Daughter lineage IDs reproducible (double-run identical) = trustless conditional-market addressing. Tower coherence: mixture 0.529 vs unconditional 0.530 (gap 0.001) = measure-preserving division. Losing world annuls (nullable pole). |
Σ trit ≡ 0.
- A1 claim = nontrivial partition
- A2 coherence = no-sure-loss ⟹ de Finetti prices
- A3 pole exogenous to prices (proven by an observed zero-bet YES resolution on Manifold)
- balanced graph → penguin p = 0.585 ≈ 1 − duckrel(0.415): a −1 edge is a probabilistic complement, as it must be
- frustrated graph → trapped node pinned at p = 0.500 max-entropy: frustration is indeterminacy, same fact twice
- harmonic-vs-quoted gap = measured market incoherence = tradeable
- v1 frustration detector missed parallel contradictory edges — rewritten
- harmonic init bug (pole-zeroing) caught by a positive control, not inspection
- armchair edges refuted by data twice: duck rivalry (co-bettor NO/NO = +, not −) and Canada floor-cross (gap 0.76 at liquidity)
- tower numbers in the divider are designed, not yet measured against live conditional markets (MetaDAO) — stated, not hidden
bb oldies_kernel.clj && bb oldies_vivarium.clj && bb oldies_divider.clj
All three exit 0; the printed numbers above are re-derived on every run.
Companion: the CatColab first-class theory th_prediction_market (signed
category + settlement pole; Negative;SettlesAgainst = Settles derived by the
rewriting engine) — this repo is its 67-line proof that the mechanism needs
none of the machinery. Machine-certified clearing side:
https://github.com/bmorphism/oldies-clearing