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Merged
justin-ven merged 5 commits into from
Aug 27, 2026
Merged

Switch hours of care provided to ordered logit #506

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43febae
Switch informal care hours to ordered logit
dav-sonn Aug 14, 2026
2f1f8ea
minor update of input data
justin-ven Aug 24, 2026
5bb6ea1
fixes to pass integration tests
justin-ven Aug 26, 2026
fec57c6
Keep local modifications to integration test results
justin-ven Aug 26, 2026
a362787
Update integration test baselines
dav-sonn Aug 27, 2026
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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions .gitignore
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Expand Up @@ -146,3 +146,4 @@ input/EUROMODoutput/baseline/*
.DS_Store

input/InitialPopulations/original/*
input/InitialPopulations/base/*
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions config/default.yml
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Expand Up @@ -17,9 +17,9 @@
maxNumberOfRuns: 1 # number of sequential simulation runs
executeWithGui: false # true = launch JAS-mine GUI; false = headless (required on servers/CI)
randomSeed: 606 # seed for the first run; incremented automatically if randomSeedInnov is true
startYear: 2019 # first year of simulation (must have matching input/donor data)
endYear: 2022 # last year of simulation (inclusive)
popSize: 50000 # simulated population size (larger = more accurate, slower)
startYear: 2011 # first year of simulation (must have matching input/donor data)
endYear: 2024 # last year of simulation (inclusive)
popSize: 100000 # simulated population size (larger = more accurate, slower)
Comment on lines +20 to +22
# countryString: "United Kingdom" # Auto-detected from donor DB if omitted
# integrationTest: false # true = write output to a fixed folder for comparison in CI tests

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Binary file modified input/DatabaseCountryYear.xlsx
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Binary file modified input/EUROMODpolicySchedule.xlsx
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62 changes: 60 additions & 2 deletions input/InitialPopulations/compile/00_master.do
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Expand Up @@ -176,7 +176,7 @@ global scProvWaves "f g h i j k l m n o" //Next time available in wave 16 p
global firstSimYear = 2010
global lastSimYear = 2024
global wealthStartYear = 2015
global wealthEndYear = 2019
global wealthEndYear = 2021


* Define threshold ages
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -216,6 +216,65 @@ global age_force_leave_spell1_edu 30
global age_have_child_max 49 // allow this to be led by the data


/**************************************************************************************
* INFLATION FOR DEFLATING FINANCIALS TO REFERENCE YEAR

CPIH INDEX 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100
CDID L522
Source dataset ID MM23
PreUnit
Unit Index, base year = 100
Release date 20-03-2024
Next release 17 April 2024
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l522/mm23
**************************************************************************************/
global inflation_minyear = 2008
global inflation_maxyear = 2025
matrix inflation = ( ///
0.862 \ /// 2009
0.879 \ /// 2009
0.901 \ /// 2010
0.936 \ /// 2011
0.96 \ /// 2012
0.982 \ /// 2013
0.996 \ /// 2014
1 \ /// 2015
1.01 \ /// 2016
1.036 \ /// 2017
1.06 \ /// 2018
1.078 \ /// 2019
1.089 \ /// 2020
1.116 \ /// 2021
1.205 \ /// 2022
1.286 \ /// 2023
1.329 \ /// 2024
1.329) /// 2025 //to update when becomes available


/**************************************************************************************
* social care wage rates (real 2015 prices for consistency with inflation figures)
**************************************************************************************/
global careWageRate_minyear = 2010
global careWageRate_maxyear = 2025
matrix careHourlyWageRates = ( ///
9.04 \ /// 2010
9.12 \ /// 2011
8.91 \ /// 2012
8.71 \ /// 2013
8.58 \ /// 2014
8.79 \ /// 2015
9.13 \ /// 2016
9.22 \ /// 2017
9.37 \ /// 2018
9.61 \ /// 2019
9.97 \ /// 2020
9.92 \ /// 2021
10.01 \ /// 2022
10.01 \ /// 2023
10.01 \ /// 2024
10.01) /// 2025


/**************************************************************************************
* ROUTE TO WORKER FILES
**************************************************************************************/
Expand All @@ -230,7 +289,6 @@ do "${dir_do}/04_social_care_provided.do"
do "${dir_do}/05_create_benefit_units.do"
* reweight data and slice into yearly segments
do "${dir_do}/06_reweight_and_slice.do"

* impute wealth data for selected years
do "${dir_do}/07_was_wealth_data.do"
forvalues year = $wealthStartYear / $wealthEndYear {
Expand Down
39 changes: 11 additions & 28 deletions input/InitialPopulations/compile/02_create_UKHLS_variables.do
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Expand Up @@ -2107,36 +2107,12 @@ replace moecd_eq = 0.3*dnc013 + 0.5*dnc1418 + 1 if dhhtp_c4 == 4
drop dnc013 dnc1418


/************************Income CPI********************************************/
/*CPIH INDEX 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100
CDID L522
Source dataset ID MM23
PreUnit
Unit Index, base year = 100
Release date 20-03-2024
Next release 17 April 2024
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l522/mm23
*/
/************************Inflation deflators********************************************/
gen CPI = .
replace CPI = 0.879 if intdaty_dv == 2009
replace CPI = 0.901 if intdaty_dv == 2010
replace CPI = 0.936 if intdaty_dv == 2011
replace CPI = 0.96 if intdaty_dv == 2012
replace CPI = 0.982 if intdaty_dv == 2013
replace CPI = 0.996 if intdaty_dv == 2014
replace CPI = 1 if intdaty_dv == 2015
replace CPI = 1.01 if intdaty_dv == 2016
replace CPI = 1.036 if intdaty_dv == 2017
replace CPI = 1.06 if intdaty_dv == 2018
replace CPI = 1.078 if intdaty_dv == 2019
replace CPI = 1.089 if intdaty_dv == 2020
replace CPI = 1.116 if intdaty_dv == 2021
replace CPI = 1.205 if intdaty_dv == 2022
replace CPI = 1.286 if intdaty_dv == 2023
replace CPI = 1.329 if intdaty_dv == 2024
replace CPI = 1.329 if intdaty_dv == 2025 //to update when becomes available

forvalues yy = $inflation_minyear/$inflation_maxyear {

replace CPI = inflation[`yy'-${inflation_minyear}+1,1] if intdaty_dv == `yy'
}


/**************************** Hourly labour income ***************************************/
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -3480,13 +3456,20 @@ gen total_wealth = -9
gen total_pensions = -9
gen housing_wealth = -9
gen mortgage_debt = -9
gen unsecured_low_debt = -9
gen unsecured_high_debt = -9
gen contRateOPEe = -9
gen contRateOPEr = -9
gen contRatePP = -9
gen smp = -9
gen rnk = -9
gen mtc = -9
label var total_wealth "total wealth net of liabilities of benefit unit including housing, business and private (personal and occupational) pensions"
label var total_pensions "value of all private (personal and occupational) pensions of benefit unit"
label var housing_wealth "value of main home gross of mortgage debt of benefit unit"
label var mortgage_debt "total mortgage debt owed on main home of benefit unit"
label var unsecured_low_debt "low-cost unsecured debt"
label var unsecured_high_debt "high-cost unsecured debt"

*check for duplicates in the pooled dataset
duplicates tag idperson idhh swv, gen(dup)
Expand Down
41 changes: 5 additions & 36 deletions input/InitialPopulations/compile/03_social_care_received.do
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Expand Up @@ -21,25 +21,7 @@ global seedBase = 3141592
global seedAdjust = 0

global careWageRate_minyear = 2010
* social care wage rates (real 2015 prices for consistency with inflation figures)
matrix careHourlyWageRates = (9.04 \ /// 2010
9.12 \ /// 2011
8.91 \ /// 2012
8.71 \ /// 2013
8.58 \ /// 2014
8.79 \ /// 2015
9.13 \ /// 2016
9.22 \ /// 2017
9.37 \ /// 2018
9.61 \ /// 2019
9.97 \ /// 2020
9.92 \ /// 2021
10.01 \ /// 2022
10.01 \ /// 2023
10.01 \ /// 2024
10.01) /// 2025

/*TO UPDATE FOR RECENT YEARS */


/**********************************************************************
* start analysis
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -459,23 +441,10 @@ tab formal_socare_hrs if rec_care2==3
* evaluate formal care costs
*************************************************************************************/
cap gen formal_socare_cost = -9
//replace formal_socare_cost = $careHourlyWageRates[`year' - $careWageRate_minyear + 1] * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0)
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.04 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2010
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.12 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2010
replace formal_socare_cost = 8.91 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2011
replace formal_socare_cost = 8.71 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2012
replace formal_socare_cost = 8.58 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2013
replace formal_socare_cost = 8.79 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2014
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.13 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2016
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.22 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2017
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.37 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2018
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.61 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2019
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.97 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2020
replace formal_socare_cost = 9.92 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2021
replace formal_socare_cost = 10.01 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2022
replace formal_socare_cost = 10.01 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2023
replace formal_socare_cost = 10.01 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2024
replace formal_socare_cost = 10.01 * formal_socare_hrs if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==2025
forvalues yy = $careWageRate_minyear/$careWageRate_maxyear {

replace formal_socare_cost = formal_socare_hrs * careHourlyWageRates[`yy'-${careWageRate_minyear},1] if (formal_socare_hrs>0) & stm==`yy'
}


/**************************************************************************************
Expand Down
57 changes: 51 additions & 6 deletions input/InitialPopulations/compile/04_social_care_provided.do
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Expand Up @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
* COUNTRY: UK
* DATA: UKHLS EUL version - UKDA-6614-stata [to wave o]
* AUTHORS: Justin van de Ven, Daria Popova
* LAST UPDATE: 15 Jan 2026 DP
* LAST UPDATE: 11 Aug 2026 JV
* NOTE: Called from 00_master.do - see master file for further details
***************************************************************************************

Expand All @@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ log using "${dir_log}/04_social_care_provided.log", replace
**********************************************************************/
cd "${dir_data}"
disp "identifying social care provision"
set seed 12345

// pooled data
foreach waveid in $scProvWaves {
Expand All @@ -30,7 +31,52 @@ foreach waveid in $scProvWaves {
rename *, l
rename `waveid'_* *
gen swv = `waveno'
keep pidp swv aidhrs aidhu*
if (`waveno' < 14) {
rename indinui_xw wgt
}
else {
rename inding2_xw wgt
}

// reallocate aidhrs categories 8 and 9 to categories 1 to 7
qui {

sum wgt if inlist(aidhrs, 1,2,3), meanonly
local sumw123 = r(sum)
sum wgt if aidhrs==1, meanonly
local p1 = r(sum) / `sumw123'
sum wgt if aidhrs==2, meanonly
local p2 = r(sum) / `sumw123'
local cut1 = `p1'
local cut2 = `p1' + `p2'

sum wgt if inlist(aidhrs, 4,5,6,7), meanonly
local sumw4567 = r(sum)
sum wgt if aidhrs==4, meanonly
local p4 = r(sum) / `sumw4567'
sum wgt if aidhrs==5, meanonly
local p5 = r(sum) / `sumw4567'
sum wgt if aidhrs==6, meanonly
local p6 = r(sum) / `sumw4567'
local cut4 = `p4'
local cut5 = `cut4' + `p5'
local cut6 = `cut5' + `p6'

gen _u = runiform()
rename aidhrs aidhrs_orig
gen aidhrs = aidhrs_orig
replace aidhrs = 1 if (aidhrs == 8 & _u <= `cut1')
replace aidhrs = 2 if (aidhrs == 8 & _u <= `cut2')
replace aidhrs = 3 if (aidhrs == 8)

replace aidhrs = 4 if (aidhrs == 9 & _u <= `cut4')
replace aidhrs = 5 if (aidhrs == 9 & _u <= `cut5')
replace aidhrs = 6 if (aidhrs == 9 & _u <= `cut6')
replace aidhrs = 7 if (aidhrs == 9)
drop _u
}

keep pidp swv aidhrs aidhu* wgt
save "${dir_data}/int_temp.dta", replace

use "${dir_ukhls_data}/`waveid'_egoalt.dta", clear
Expand All @@ -48,10 +94,9 @@ foreach waveid in $scProvWaves {
drop if (chk==1)
drop chk
merge 1:1 pidp using "${dir_data}/int_temp.dta", keep(2 3) nogen
keep pidp swv aidhrs aidhu* rindiv*
keep pidp swv aidhrs aidhu* rindiv* wgt
save "${dir_data}/ukhls_scprov_`waveid'.dta", replace
}
clear all
foreach waveid in $scProvWaves {
if ("`waveid'" == "f") {
use "${dir_data}/ukhls_scprov_`waveid'.dta", clear
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -109,8 +154,8 @@ replace aidhrs_adj = 27 if (aidhrs==4)
replace aidhrs_adj = 42 if (aidhrs==5)
replace aidhrs_adj = 74.5 if (aidhrs==6)
replace aidhrs_adj = 120 if (aidhrs==7)
replace aidhrs_adj = 5.48 if (aidhrs==8) //weighted average of 1 to 3
replace aidhrs_adj = 71.5 if (aidhrs==9) //weighted average of 4 to 7
//replace aidhrs_adj = 5.48 if (aidhrs==8) //weighted average of 1 to 3
//replace aidhrs_adj = 71.5 if (aidhrs==9) //weighted average of 4 to 7

gen care_nonpartner = (care_parent + care_child + care_others > 0)
gen careWho = 0
Expand Down
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